Zekollari, H., Huss, M. & Farinotti, D. Modelling the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps under the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble. b, c, d and f, g, h annual glacier-wide MB probability distribution functions for all n scenarios in each RCP. The Nisqually Glacier, Mount Rainier, Washington, 1857-1979: A summary On top of that, they happen to be among the glacierized regions with the largest projected uncertainties8. The record, which was started in 1931, shows the glacier's dramatic responses to about half a century of small but significant climatic variations. 799904) and from the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique FNRS (postdoctoral grant charg de recherches). A small ablation increase may cause . However, the use of ANNs remains largely unexplored in glaciology for regression problems, with only a few studies using shallow ANNs for predicting the ice thickness14 or mass balance13 of a single glacier. Glacier response to climate perturbations: an accurate linear geometric Kinematic waves on glaciers move as several times the speed of the ice as a whole, and are subtle in topographic expression. Consequently, a simple MB model with a single DDF (e.g. Average cumulative MB projections of French Alpine glaciers with a nonlinear deep learning vs. a linear Lasso model for 29 climate scenarios; a with topographical feedback (allowing for glacier retreat) and e without topographical feedback (synthetic experiment with constant mean glacier altitude). With a secondary role, glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it represents the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of the century8. Braithwaite, R. J. If material is not included in the articles Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. Glaciers - Mount Rainier National Park (U.S. National Park Service) Glacier variations in response to climate change from 1972 to 2007 in 3). Earth Sci. Explore awards | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration This ensures that the model is capable of reproducing MB rates for unseen glaciers and years. Fr Hydrobiol. snowfall, avalanches and refreezing) and the mass lost via different processes of ablation (e.g. Res. Tour. This dataset applies a statistical adjustment specific to French mountain regions based on the SAFRAN dataset, to EURO-CORDEX26 GCM-RCM-RCP members, covering a total of 29 different future climate scenarios for the 20052100 period. ICCV (2015) https://doi.org/10.1109/iccv.2015.123. CoRR abs/1505.00853 (2015). We further assessed the effect of MB nonlinearities by comparing our simulated glacier changes with those obtained from other glacier evolution studies from the literature, which rely on temperature-index models for MB modelling. This annual geometry adjustment accounts for the effects of glacier retreat on the climate signal received by glaciers. In order to investigate the implications of these results for flat glaciers, we performed additional synthetic experiments in order to reproduce this lack of topographical feedback (Fig. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, G-INP, Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann, Grenoble, France, You can also search for this author in 3). MATH 49, 26652683 (2017). Alluvial landscape response to climate change in glacial rivers and the implications to transportation infrastructure. ADS is central to a glacier's response: Fig.2ashows 1L.t/for a warming trend of 1 C per century, for three glaciers with dierent (and fixed ). As Arctic warms, Canada's glaciers playing major role in sea - CBC Maussion, F. et al. Ser. The ice thickness data for two of the largest glaciers in the French Alps were modified in order to improve data quality. Taking into account that for several regions in the world about half of the glacierized volume will be lost during this first half of the 21st century, glacier models play a major role in the correct assessment of future glacier evolution. 1). Res. The model output data generated in this study have been deposited in netCDF and CSV format in a Zenodo repository under accession code Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International. melt and sublimation of ice, firn and snow; or calving)9; and (2) ice flow dynamics, characterized by the downward movement of ice due to the effects of gravity in the form of deformation of ice and basal sliding. The authors declare no competing interests. Nat. The Elements of Statistical Learning. GloGEMflow10 is a state-of-the-art global glacier evolution model used in a wide range of studies, including the second phase of GlacierMIP7,8. In order to overcome these differences, some adaptations were performed to the GloGEMflow output, accompanied with some hypotheses to ensure a realistic comparison. S5 and S6). 4). The lower fraction of variance explained by linear models is present under all climate scenarios. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2018). The dataset of initial glacier ice thickness, available for the year 2003, determines the starting point of our simulations. Glaciers are experiencing important changes throughout the world as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change1. Geophys. Nisqually Glacier | glacier, Washington, United States South American Glaciers Melting Faster, Changing Sea Level 12, 1959 (2020). Cauvy-Frauni, S. & Dangles, O. As we have previously shown, these models present a very similar behaviour to the linear statistical MB model from this study (Fig. Nonetheless, since they are both linear, their calibrated parameters establishing the sensitivity of melt and glacier-wide MB to temperature variations remain constant over time. 2a and S3). Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016. Rainier, Washington. Fundam. Appl. A similar trend is under way. He, K., Zhang, X., Ren, S. & Sun, J. Delving Deep into Rectifiers: Surpassing Human-Level Performance on ImageNet Classification. Interestingly, this matches the nonlinear, less sensitive response to summer snowfall in the ablation season of our deep learning model (Fig. A NASA-led, international study finds Asia's high mountain glaciers are flowing more slowly in response to widespread ice loss, affecting freshwater availability downstream in India, Pakistan and China. This allows us to assess the MB models responses at a regional scale to changes in individual predictors (Fig. 4e) MB rates. At the Edge: Monitoring Glaciers to Watch Global Warming - NASA Secure .gov websites use HTTPS A lock ( ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-821575-3.00009-8. Moreover, these differences between nonlinear and linear models appear to come from an over-sensitivity of linear models to increasing ablation season air temperatures, when ice is exposed in a large fraction of glaciers. 4 ). Climate variations change a glacier's mass balance by affecting ablation and accumulation amounts. All these glacier models, independently from their approach, need to resolve the two main processes that determine glacier evolution: (1) glacier mass balance, as the difference between the mass gained via accumulation (e.g. Monitoring the Seasonal hydrology of alpine wetlands in response to snow cover dynamics and summer climate: a novel approach with sentinel-2. Our analysis suggests that due to this positive impact on the MB signal, only relevant differences are observed between nonlinear and linear MB models for the lowest emission climate scenarios (Fig. These results revealed that the main uncertainties on glacier simulations arise from the initial ice thickness used to initialize the model. Glacier ice thickness observations are available for four different glaciers in the regions, which were compared to the estimates used in this model. Bolibar, J. ALPGM (ALpine Parameterized Glacier Model) v1.1. Other articles where Nisqually Glacier is discussed: Mount Rainier: from the broad summit, including Nisqually Glacier, whose retreat and advance over the last 150 years has helped scientists determine patterns in the Earth's climate. Nat. 4e and 5). Annual glacier-wide mass balance (MB) is estimated to remain stable at around 1.2m.w.e. Immerzeel, W. W. et al. 60, 11401154 (2014). A recent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction indicates an oscillating temperature drop from A.D. 1000-1850 of about 0.2C with a subsequent and still continuing warming of nearly 0.8C ( 3 ). Nonetheless, since the main GCM-RCM climate signal is the same, the main large-scale long-term trends are quite similar. a Projected mean glacier altitude evolution between 2015 and 2100. Several aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems depend on these water resources as well, which ensure a base runoff during the warmest or driest months of the year6. The Cryosphere 14, 565584 (2020). 1). With this setup, we reproduced the ice cap-like behaviour with a lack of topographical adjustment to higher elevations. Pellicciotti, F. et al. Botanical Evidence of the Modern History of Nisqually Glacier - USGS & Zumbhl, H. J. Fluctuations of the Nisqually Glacier, Mt. Rainier, Washington, since Analysis of a 24-Year photographic record of Nisqually glacier, Mount 0.78m.w.e. Data 12, 19731983 (2020). Rainier is considered by the USGS to be one of the most threatening volcanoes in the Cascade Mountains. GloGEMflow relies on EURO-CORDEX ensembles26, whereas ALPGM uses ADAMONT25, an adjusted version of EURO-CORDEX specifically designed for mountain regions. J. Geophys. Model Dev. Rabatel, A., Sanchez, O., Vincent, C. & Six, D. Estimation of glacier thickness from surface mass balance and ice flow velocities: a case study on Argentire Glacier, France. Such glaciers are often remnants of the Little Ice Age, and mainly lose mass via non-dynamic downwasting51. The main reason for their success comes from their suitability to large-scale studies with a low density of observations, in some cases displaying an even better performance than more complex models12. Warming Seas Are Accelerating Greenland's Glacier Retreat If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate. 3). Hock, R. & Huss, M. Glaciers and climate change. S10). Earth Syst. the Open Global Glacier Model - OGGM9) is likely to be less affected by an over-sensitivity to future warming than a more complex model with dedicated DDFs for ice, snow, and firn. The effect of glaciers shrinking to smaller extents is not captured by these synthetic experiments, but this effect is less important for flat glaciers that are dominated by thinning (Fig. This enables the recalculation of every topographical predictor used for the MB model, thus updating the mean glacier altitude at which climate data for each glacier are retrieved. In this study, we investigate the future evolution of glaciers in the French Alps and their nonlinear response to multiple climate scenarios. Climate predictors consist of: the annual CPDD, winter snowfall, summer snowfall, monthly mean temperature and monthly snowfall. Planet. Glob. P. Kennard, J. Loss of glaciers contributes to sea-level rise, creates environmental hazards and can alter aquatic habitats. Huss, M. et al. When working with spatiotemporal data, it is imperative to respect spatial and temporal data structures during cross-validation in order to correctly assess an accurate model performance48. By the end of the century, we predict a glacier volume loss between 75 and 88%. In the past, shortwave radiation represented a more important fraction in the glacier surface energy budget than the energy fluxes directly related to air temperature (e.g. a1 throughout the whole century under RCP 4.5, with glacier retreat to higher elevations (positive effect on MB) compensating for the warmer climate (negative effect on MB). (Zenodo, 2020). In the United States, glaciers can be found in the Rocky Mountains, the Sierra Nevada, the Cascades, and throughout Alaska. Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation. Vis. Google Scholar. Advances occurred from 1963-68 and from 1974-79. Glacier response to climate change Jim Salinger, Trevor Chinn, Andrew Willsman, and how fluctuations in New Zealand glaciers reflect regional climate change. This behaviour has already been observed for the European Alps, with a reduction in DDFs for snow during the ablation season of 7% per decade34. This parametrization reproduces in an empirical manner the changes in glacier geometry due to the combined effects of ice dynamics and MB. Farinotti, D. et al. Zekollari, H., Huss, M. & Farinotti, D. On the Imbalance and Response Time of Glaciers in the European Alps. These different behaviours and resulting biases can potentially induce important consequences in long-term glacier evolution projections. In Climate Change 157176 (Elsevier, 2021). longwave radiation budget, turbulent fluxes), in comparison with a future warmer climate. However, both the climate and glacier systems are known to react non-linearly, even to pre-processed forcings like PDDs13, implying that these models can only offer a linearized approximation of climate-glacier relationships. 5). Analyses were made of the annual photographs . A physically-based method for mapping glacial debris-cover thickness from ASTER satellite imagery: development and testing at Miage Glacier, Italian Alps Discovery - the University of Dundee Research Portal J. Glaciol. The performance of this parametrization was validated in a previous study, indicating a correct agreement with observations31. Our results point out that this lack of topographical feedback leads to an increased frequency of extreme negative MB rates and to more pronounced differences between the nonlinear and linear MB models (Figs. Partitioning the uncertainty of ensemble projections of global glacier mass change. Bartk, B. et al. Interestingly, our analysis indicates that more complex models using separate DDFs for ice, firn and snow might introduce stronger biases than more simple models using a single DDF. CAS Slider with three articles shown per slide. Particularly in Asia, water demand exceeds supply due to rapid population growth, with glacier . The vertical blue and red lines indicate the distribution of extreme (top 5%) values for all 21st century projected climate scenarios, with the mean value in the center and 1 indicated by dashed lines. The application of a non-linear back-propagation neural network to study the mass balance of Grosse Aletschgletscher, Switzerland.